Author: Jason Luo
The 2025-2026 MLB offseason feels less like a standard marketplace and more like a turning point for the league's entire economic future. Looming over every transaction is the expiration of the current labour agreement in December 2026, a deadline that many insiders fear will lead to a contentious lockout. The potential introduction of a salary cap and floor has front offices scrambling, knowing this winter might be the final opportunity to lock in long-term talent under the current rules. This fear of a potential change in how money moves in baseball could signal the end of the ludicrous, blank-check contracts we’ve grown accustomed to. While there is traditionally a period of relative peacefulness until the Winter Meetings, the Toronto Blue Jays shattered that calm early. Their aggressive seven-year, $210 million acquisition of right-hander Dylan Cease wasn't just a roster move; it was a shot across the bow that set a scorching pace for the pitching market. It signalled that teams are operating with a unique urgency, unwilling to wait for the market to settle. With the Winter Meetings approaching quickly and the stakes higher than ever, now seems like the perfect time to discuss my top 5 free agency predictions of the 2025-2026 offseason.
1. Kyle Tucker
Position: RF | Age: 28
2025 Statistics: .266/.377/.464 | 22 HR, 4.5 fWAR (136 Games)
Kyle Tucker enters the open market as the undisputed premier position player available. At 28 years old, Tucker is in the middle of his prime as a true 5-tool outfielder. His 2025 campaign with the Chicago Cubs, following a blockbuster trade from Houston the previous winter, was sensational until the injuries started piling up. Through June, Tucker was performing at a legitimate MVP calibre, hitting to the tune of a .931 OPS with 20 stolen bases and elite defensive metrics in right field. He appeared destined for a 7+ WAR season. However, his season was altered by a hairline fracture in his right hand in late June and a subsequent calf strain in September. These injuries limited him to 136 games and visibly slumped his power output in July and August. The underlying metrics remain pristine, Tucker possesses elite plate discipline (ranking in the top percentiles for walk rate and chase rate), contact skills rare for a power hitter, and 90th percentile base running value.
Rumours have been circulating that the Blue Jays, Mets, Padres, and Yankees are all in on the bidding for Tucker’s services; it will be similar to the Juan Soto sweepstakes. With the going rate of $8M/WAR and Kyle Tucker being on the younger side of free agents this year, my final prediction for Kyle Tucker is $375M over 10 years with the New York Yankees.
The Yankees do have a crowded outfield picture, but lack a true second superstar bat to pair with Aaron Judge after losing Juan Soto. I believe they will move on from Bellinger and make a splash with Kyle Tucker, another slugging lefty who is going to enjoy that short porch in Yankee Stadium
Prediction: Yankees
2. Tatsuya Imai
Position: SP | Age: 28
2025 Statistics (NPB): 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 163.2 IP, 178 SO, 10-5 W/L
Tatsuya Imai represents another absolutely electrifying Japanese arm to hit the market. Imai is a quintessential power pitcher. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high 90s, touching 99 mph, complemented by a slider and splitter combination that generates elite whiff rates. His 2025 performance in Japan was nothing short of dominant. A 1.92 ERA across 163.2 innings demonstrates both his suppression capability and his durability. While his control has historically been a bit shaky (BB/9 of 3.63 in 2024) his raw stuff translates seamlessly to the modern MLB game with a mix of the philosophy of American power pitching and the Japanese philosophy of deception and durability.
While the obvious choice for star Japanese players is the Dodgers, Imai has publicly stated he “has a desire to beat the Dodgers instead of joining them”. This leads many experts to believe he will sign with an East Coast team rather than go west, as many Japanese stars have. Teams interested include both New York teams as well as the Cubs, the Phillies and the Giants. My prediction is that Imai will sign a 7-year, $185M contract with the Chicago Cubs. With it very likely they will lose Kyle Tucker and a history of willingness to spend on Japanese imports, I think Imai will find a new home in the windy city.
Prediction: Cubs
3. Bo Bichette
Position: SS/2B | Age: 27
2025 Statistics: .311 /.357 /.483 | 18 HR, 3.8 fWAR (139 Games)
Bo Bichette enters free agency as the premier middle infielder of the class. After a difficult injury-plagued 2024, Bichette rebounded in 2025 to re-establish himself as an elite offensive shortstop. Before a knee sprain ended his regular season in September, he led the American League in hits (181) and posted an.840 OPS. His return in the postseason was even more impressive, slashing .348 in the World Series and playing good defence at 2B while Gimenez took over at SS. Bichette is in the prime of his career. His defensive metrics at shortstop have historically been average to slightly below average, a transition to 2B is a serious conversation teams need to have before agreeing to SS money. Bo is a high-contact, aggressive hitter capable of 20+ home runs and 40+ doubles annually.
After the success of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025, in combination with Bo stating, “My ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization,” I do not doubt in my mind that Bo will stay with the Toronto Blue Jays. However, they will most likely have to pay a premium due to the tax implications of living in Canada. My prediction is that Bo will ink a $270M deal over 8 years. This gives Bo a bit less AAV than Vladdy but almost half the length, with the opportunity to sign another contract in the future.
Prediction: Blue Jays
4. Framber Valdez
Position: SP| Age: 32
2025 Statistics: 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. 192 IP, 187 SO, 4.0 fWAR, 13-11 W/L
Framber Valdez remains one of the game's rare workhorses. In an era where 150 innings is a heavy workload, Valdez threw 192 innings in 2025, marking the third time in four years he has crossed the 190-inning threshold. His 59.4% ground ball rate ranks in the 97th percentile, making him immune to the home run issues that plague many modern starters. However, his market is complicated by a disastrous finish to the 2025 season (6.05 ERA in his final 10 starts) and a bizarre "cross-up" incident with catcher César Salazar that raised questions about his composure. With limited lefty pitchers on the market this off-season, Valdez will command attention from many top ballclubs.
While the Astros have maintained contact, Valdez has reportedly sought a "change of scenery" to maximize his value in a larger market, signalling a departure from the organization that he has spent his whole career with. Teams heavily linking themselves to the southpaw include the New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants, all of whom are looking for a veteran arm to front their rotation. My prediction is that Valdez will sign a 7-year, $190M contract with the Baltimore Orioles. With the O’s having consistent pitching problems as of late, a new ownership group looking to splash, and the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Camden Yards, Valdez would be perfect to stabilize a consistent problem in Baltimore.
Prediction: Orioles
5. Pete Alonso
Position: 1B | Age: 31
2025 Statistics: .258 /.352 /.531 | 44 HR, 3.6 fWAR (158 Games)
Alonso delivered exactly what teams have come to expect: elite durability in tandem with top-tier slugging. He finished second in the National League in home runs (44) and drove in 118 runs, continuing his historic pace as one of the most consistent power threats of the decade. Alonso’s underlying metrics remain elite; he ranked in the 98th percentile for barrel rate and average exit velocity, proving his raw power is nowhere near declining. While his defensive metrics at first base remain middling (–2 OAA), he has improved his scooping ability and remains a passable defender who plays every single day. Alonso is a clubhouse leader who thrives in the spotlight, with his .950 OPS in September as the Mets pushed for a Wild Card spot.
The constant disappointing seasons for the Mets, especially this past season, when they held the best record in Major League Baseball (45-24) on June 12th, and then finished with a team that missed the playoffs entirely, have to play a part in Pete’s decision. The market for Alonso has become a full-blown bidding war, with the New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox all circling. My prediction is that Alonso will leave New York to sign a $175M, 6-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. Boston is lacking a 1B as well as a lack of a premier power threat with them dealing Rafael Devers early in the 2025 season. Alonso will solve multiple problems the Sox have to make them more competitive in the AL East.
Prediction: Red Sox
Final Thoughts
If these predictions hold, the 2025-2026 offseason will be remembered as the "Last Great Spending Spree" before the uncertainty of the looming labour agreement. Multiple franchises are operating with a "win now" urgency rarely seen in the modern game. As we head into the Winter Meetings, the wait is over; the MLB free agency craze has officially begun. Teams are not just buying players; they are buying insurance against a future salary cap, scrambling to secure superstars while the market still allows for mega deals. Buckle up, this winter is going to be expensive, chaotic, and absolutely thrilling. When the dust finally settles on these signings, the balance of power across the league will have shifted dramatically, potentially defining the competitive landscape for the next decade.